Poker Preflop Odds

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In addition to the odds of winning a hand by pairing cards on the board, suited cards will flop a 4 flush 10.9% of the time (you will complete the flush 35.0% of those times). They will flop a flush outright. Pre-Flop Poker Probability - Probability Of Hands Pre-Flop Chart. The reference table below gives probabilities of being dealt specific hands pre-flop: The next article in this series will look at the. You will improve it on the turn: 9.2=18% and real poker odds are around 19%; You have a straight draw on the flop with 8 outs. You will improve it on the turn: 8.2=16% and real poker odds are around 17%; You have two over cards on the turn with 6 outs. You will improve it on the turn: 6.2=12% and real poker odds.

In this lesson we’re going to run through a number of heads-up match-ups that will help give you an idea of where you stand in a variety of pre-flop situations when playing hold’em. Be aware that we’re only going to focus on individual hand match-ups. When playing hold’em it’s essential that you put your opponent on a range of hands, rather than specific holdings. However, knowing the odds of common pre-flop match-ups is a good starting point. Pick out and study what will help you. While it’s not essential that these statistics be committed to memory, it won’t hurt you if you do.

Let’s start by looking at hand match-ups when holding a pair:

Pair vs. Pair

The higher pair is an 80 percent favourite. We can get very technical and highlight the fact that if the underpair didn’t have any clean suits and/or the maximum number of straight outs then the high pair’s equity would increases by one or two percent.

Pair vs. Overcards

Preflop Odds Chart

This is the classic coin flip hand that you’ll see many times late in tournaments with one player being all-in. The term coin flip indicates an even money situation which is really a 55 to 45 percent situation, as the pair is a slight favourite.

Pair vs. Undercards

In this situation the pair is normally about a 5-to-1 favourite and can vary depending on whether the two undercards are suited and/or connectors.

Pair vs. Overcard and an undercard

The pair is about a 70 percent favourite. Another example of this holding would be J-J against A-9. The underdog non-paired hand has three outs while the favourite has redraws.

Pair vs. Overcard and one of that pair

The classic example of this situation is the confrontation between a pair of cowboys and big slick. The A-K has three outs and it becomes a 70-30 percent situation or a 2.3-to-1 dog for the cowboys. This is a far cry from the next situation where even though one of the pair is matched the other card is lower.

Pair vs. Undercard and one of that pair

The non pair has to hit its undercard twice or make a straight or flush to prevail. The pair is better than a 90 percent favourite or slightly better than 10-to-1 odds. I’ll take those odds anytime.

Pair vs. Lower suited connectors

You see this match-up late in tournaments when a player is getting desperate and pushes all-in with middle suited connectors. A hand such as Q-Q against 7-6 suited would be a prime example. The pair is a strong favourite to win.

Pair vs. Higher suited connectors

Here is the real coin flip situation. A pair of eights heads-up against a suited Q-J is a fifty-fifty proposition. The higher suited cards would have an edge against a lower pair, such as 2’s or 3’s, since the board itself can sometimes destroy little pairs.

Common Pre-Flop Match-Ups (Non Pairs)

The following heads-up confrontations contain no pairs.

Two high cards vs. Two undercards

The two higher cards are usually a 65% favourite to win, but it can vary depending on whether any of the cards are suited and/or connectors.

High card, low card vs. Two middle cards

In this match-up the high card gives it the edge. But it’s only a marginal winner, approximately 57% to the hand containing the high card.

High card, middle card vs. Second highest, low card

The edge is increased by around 5% when the low card becomes the third highest card, as shown in this example, which gives approx 62% to 38% for high card/middle card combination.

High card, same card vs. Same card, low card

In this example the A-J is in a very strong position. If we discount any flush or straight possibilities, it only leaves the player holding J-8 with three outs (the three remaining 8’s).

Same high card, high kicker vs. Same card, low kicker

PrePoker flush odds preflop

The high kicker gives this hand a fairly big edge. It’s very common for A-K run into A-Q, A-J, and lower, and it’s why Ace-King is such a powerful hand, particularly at the business end of no-limit hold’em tournaments when people move all-in with any sort of Ace.

Statistical Variations

For any math maniacs reading this who do not find these odds precise enough, I acknowledge that the math is rounded and for the most part does not take into account the possibilities of ties and back door straights and flushes. What players need to be equipped with is the general statistical match-up – not the fact that in the example of a pair of eights against a suited Q-J the percents are exactly 50.61 for the eights to 48.99 for the suited connectors with the balance going to potential ties. I call that a fifty-fifty proposition.

Of greater importance than quibbling over tenths of a percent is the fact that in most heads-up confrontations you can never be a prohibitive underdog. That is one reason why poker is so challenging and fun. Of course, while true, I’m not attempting to embolden the reader to ignore the odds and become a maniac. Math is the underpinning of poker and if you regularly get your money into the middle with the worst of it you will go broke.

One statistic that hasn’t been mentioned, and it’s one that I particularly like is this – the odds of both players being dealt Aces when playing heads up (one on one) is 270,724-to-1. It’s my favourite statistic because it provides me with almost total confidence when I’m playing heads up and receive pocket Aces that I’m the boss! That confident feeling lasts right up to the river when my Aces get cracked by some rotten piece of cheese which my opponent elected to play. As mentioned already, rarely are you a prohibitive underdog – so remember that to keep those losing hands in perspective.

Related Lessons

By Tom 'TIME' Leonard

Pre Flop Odds Calc

Tom has been writing about poker since 1994 and has played across the USA for over 40 years, playing every game in almost every card room in Atlantic City, California and Las Vegas.

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Understanding Probability In Texas Holdem Is An Essential Aspect Of Profitable Play
– Pre-Flop Probability Guide

Poker Preflop Odds Calculator

Ever wondered how often you will be dealt Aces? Or what the chances of facing an over-pair are when you hold Jack-Jack? This section of the site will give you the probability of certain hands before the flop (this page) and in later pages the chances of certain flops (for example one suit flop probability) and the chances of dominating hands being out there to your ace-x hand (where x is one of several small to medium cards).

Texas Holdem Odds Chart Preflop

We start by looking at how the cards in the deck can be dealt based on a random distribution of the 1326 ways of 2 cards falling and how often you’ll expect to be dealt certain hands. Then we take suitedness into account – since there are less ways of being dealt 2 suited cards. Later articles in this series will continue with the essential poker probability and card distribution stats you need.

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Poker Preflop Odds Chart

Firstly, where did the number 1326 come from? Well with 52 cards in the deck your first card is 1/52 this is then multiplied by 1/51 and the total divided by 2 (since it does not matter what order your cards are dealt in) giving 1326 combinations of all cards in any suit.

Of course suitedness is not often important, especially for low cards. The next question is then – what is the number of unique starting hands in Texas Holdem, not counting suits? The answer here is 169 unique hands.

Pre-Flop Poker Probability - 169 Distinct Starting Hands

PreflopPoker Preflop Odds

Now we are getting somewhere. Next we can use the numbers above to work out what the probability of being dealt AA, KK (or in fact any pair) is. This is a case of taking the total number of possible hands and then seeing how many of these are your pair. We will take a pair of Kings as an example. Of the 1326 possible combinations there are 6 ways of being dealt this hand pre-flop. The 6 combinations possible are Kh-Kd, Kh-Kc, Kh-Ks, Kd-Kc, Kd-Ks and Kc-Ks.

6 / 1326 = 0.00435 or 221-to-1

So the chances of being dealt any specific pair are 221:1 against, in fact with 13 possible pairs the chances of being dealt any pair go up to 16-to-1 (there are 78 pair combinations from 1326 total).

Next we can look at unpaired hands, a specific example is the number of ways of being dealt Ace-king pre-flop. Here we have more possible combinations, since there are 8 cards that can be dealt first and then 3 remaining cards to make this hand (we will ignore suitedness for the moment). This gives 16 ways in which A-K can be dealt out of the 1326 combinations – a probability of 0.0121% or approximately 82-to-1. In fact this is the same for any unpaired hand when you ignore the suits.

Pre-Flop Poker Probability - Probability Of Hands Pre-Flop Chart

The reference table below gives probabilities of being dealt specific hands pre-flop: The next article in this series will look at the chances of being dealt hands at the same time as one or more opponent is dealt a higher hand – for example AA vs KK and AK vs QQ.

Pre-flop Hand

Odds

AA

0.045

Same for any pocket pair

AK (any suits)

0.012

Any 2 cards not inc. suits

AK (suited)

0.003

Pair 10-10 or better

0.023

10-10, JJ, QQ, KK or AA

AK, AQ or AJ

0.036

Suits not considered

2 Suited Cards 10+

0.03

Any Suited Connector

0.039

23 suited or better

2 Cards Jack +

0.09

Suits not considered

Finally we can look at how combinations of pre-flop hands work, asking the question what is the probability of being dealt a playable hand for each position. We will use arbitary early, middle and late position combinations here to demonstrate – the actually hands you play is up to your personal style!

Position
Combinations

Early Position

AA to JJ, AKo, AQs

46

29:1

Early Mid Position

AA to 99, AQo+, AJs

18:1

Mid Position

77+, A10o+ A8s+ KQ+

140

9,5:1

Late Position

55+, A7+, QJo+, 78s+

5,5:1

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